Your Debate Scorecard
- Philip Mauriello Jr.
- Sep 26, 2016
- 6 min read
Tonight is the first debate between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. The lights have not even been switched on yet and the news already is calling this the biggest political event in the history of the United States. An estimated 100 million people are expected to watch. In a NBC News Poll 80% of Americans are planning on tuning in. Needless to say, the lights don't shine any brighter and the stakes don't get any higher than tonight for both candidates.
With that said, there are a couple things that both the candidates will have to do to consider tonight a "win" for their side.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump firebombed his way through the Republican primaries by calling out Republican nominees and saying things that were unconventional. This brand of controversy mixed with quick wit, effectively "stumped" all of his opponents. Most of them were used to speaking and debating as politicians, with a certain amount of carefully scripted talking points and poised demeanor.
Trump did none of that. He stormed into the debates and woke up every voter to a brash, honest, say it like it is style that obviously worked for him. Soon, Republican primary debates (remember these are just primary debates) turned into must-see TV, drawing huge amounts of viewers and voters to Trump's campaign.
This style of debating may have worked in the primaries, but it also did a huge number on his reputation as well. After the debates, Trump was seen as a bully. His outlandish statements enraged opponents from voters to heads of state. Coming out of the primaries, Trump's number one goal was to unite the Republican party and seem presidential.
You can argue that Trump has effectively unified the Republican Party again. With Ted Cruz finally throwing his support behind Trump, you can see the last holdouts finally coming around. The "Never Trump" people are now a sad, small sector of the Republican Party, and more people are unifying behind Trump to bring home victory in November.
But Trump's biggest obstacle is convincing voters that he can be presidential. We have seen in the past month, the Trump campaign changing the narrative. His tone has softened. He speaks in broad strokes about bringing Americans together. He meets with heads of state (Mexican President and Prime Minister of Israel). He was the first person on the ground handing out rescue supplies in Louisiana after the floods. All these moments were not happenstance, but a concerted effort under new campaign manager Kelly Ann Conway, to soften Trump's image and make him more presidential, and the polls seem to reacting to the past couple weeks.
The final bow on top of an incredible comeback, would be for Trump to leave tonight's debate with more people believing he can be presidential. This will require the Republican nominee to be drastically different than he was in the primaries. While in the primaries it was a knock out, drag out fight amongst 16 opponents; tonight's debate will be a one on one. Trump will have to exude confidence without being seen as too aggressive. He can't be brash with Clinton, for fear that he will add fuel to the fire that he's a "misogynist" and "sexist". Trump will also have to be the voice of the "silent majority", those who have felt out of the loop for so long and need someone to be their voice. Finally, everyone knows of Clinton's misgivings, it's not his job to sit there and rehash what everybody knows. Instead, Trump has to spin those misgivings into a positive message for America. He will have to use Clinton's unfavorability against her to reach out to voters.
In essence, Trump's goal tonight has little to do with Hillary Clinton, and more with the American public. He will have millions of people tuning in maybe for the first time to hear him speak at length. This is an opportunity for Trump to sell the American people that he's ready to be Commander in Chief. If he can sell the American people like he does in business, Clinton might be in for a rude awakening come tomorrow morning.
Hillary Clinton
A tale of two campaigns. While Trump's campaign has been on the rise, Clinton's has been in a little bit of a free fall for the past couple weeks. The email scandal is not going anywhere, and new details seem to emerge every week. Couple that with her "basket of deplorables" comment, and her health issues, Clinton has seen a rough couple of weeks.
Her past debates with Senator Bernie Sanders were pretty inflammatory. The Vermont Senator took it Clinton by calling her out on her connections to Wall Street, as well as her flip flopping on numerous issues. Senator Sanders did a great job painting Clinton as a consummate politician who will say, and do anything to be elected. While she won in the long run, it was not without the expense of thousands of Sanders supporters who are now bitter and resentful that Clinton won.
Bloomberg Politics came out with a video stating how Clinton has a "debate superpower" which Trump should be aware of. This superpower according to Bloomberg is simply that Clinton, as a woman, gets different treatment in debates. In debates with men, Clinton can play off being hurt or objectified by men, and thus make people like her.
One example can be seen below, where in 2008, the moderator asked then Senator Clinton how she felt when people said they liked then Senator Obama more than her.
Her response was witty, and personal, and after the debate the response actually helped her increase her favorable ratings. It made her human.
However, Donald Trump is not debating 2008 Clinton tonight. He's debating 2016 Clinton. I could argue that going over past videos, he would have a much harder time against 2008 Clinton, but that's for a different article.
The difference with this is, it's a primary debate, and not a general election debate. Similar to how Trump got away with firebombing the debates in the Republican primaries, I doubt Clinton can get away with "hurt feelings" in the general. You usually have more leeway and flexibility in the primaries, but not in the general election.
Keep in mind this is 2008, 8 years have passed by and a lot has happened with the Clintons since then. Scandals have piled up. Add to that her time as Secretary of State. Clinton has a lot more to defend this go around in the presidential debates.
But this time, Clinton is on the big stage. She is one of two people who will be the next President of the United States. Voters usually start to take harder looks at candidates and determine if they want them at the helm for the next four years. This means that simply saying something "hurts her feelings" might not help her and it might actually hurt her.
This is important because we've never had a female nominee from a major political party running for president. When the cards are on the table, the double standard Clinton has benefitted from may also become her greatest weakness.
Will voters want to hear that hearing someone doesn't like them "hurts their feelings"? How does that look when considering this person could be going toe to toe with the likes of Vladimir Putin and Bashir Assad? The world is dominated with male heads of state, and complaining that she is being treated unfairly may not be enough this time for voters to turn around and vote for her.
To combat this, Clinton might have to take a couple jabs from Trump and show she actually has a thick skin. For all intensive purposes Clinton has to prove to the voters she doesn't have a glass jaw when it comes to politics. She will have to prove how she's up for the job, while also deflecting what is assured to be an onslaught of jabs about her mountain of scandals.
In my opinion this is a much harder sell to the American people than Trump's goal of being presidential. While Trump has been doing everything to show he can be presidential, Clinton has had stumble after stumble showing she might not have the strength to withstand being Commander in Chief. Take for example the viral internet video of her excitedly asking "Why aren't I 50 points ahead?!". This type of attitude makes it seem like she takes voters who don't agree with her personally.
So while Clinton's biggest strength in the past has been her ability to lean on the woman card for sympathy, it may in fact end up coming back to bite her if she leans on it too heavily.
Conclusion
Trump and Clinton both have individual goals they are going to have to achieve to be considered the "winner" tonight. But the definition of winning doesn't necessarily include mopping the floor with their opponent, rather with 100 million people watching, the definition of winning might who takes advantage of the limelight and sells the American voters better.
When the lights come on, who will sell the American people better in what will be the biggest political event in history? We will just have to wait and see, because after tonight, the election is going to take a drastic turn one way or the other.
Comments