Donald Trump Is Your 45th President of the United States

Around 3:00am on November 9th, 2016, Secretary Clinton called Donald Trump and conceded the Presidential race and ended what will likely go down as one of the most historic and controversial elections in American history.

The election was filled with foul language, unorthodox campaign moves, criminal investigations, and even some black magic. Books will be written about this election and most likely the debate does not stop here. Regardless, as America woke up today, they had a new President-elect and his name is Donald Trump.

In an unlikely rise from running joke, to the 45th President, Trump's rise was something unprecedented. In 2013, comedian John Oliver poked fun at the fact that Trump had sent a team to Iowa to explore a possible presidential run in 2016. He begged him to run for sheer comedic reason, I don't know what John Oliver's mood is this now, but I doubt he's in a laughing mood.

In the primaries, CNN gave Donald Trump a 1% chance of winning the nomination. Again, Trump beat the odds.

A day before Americans headed to the polls, polls had a Clinton win around a 90% likelihood. Huffington Post had a Clinton win at 98%. Forget Truman vs. Dewey, this will be the biggest upset in Presidential politics in history.

The election results are still trickling in, at this moment three states remain on the board, but two of the three are likely to go to Trump pushing his total above 300 electoral votes.

I am not going to pick apart how this all came about because the raw data is just not there yet, but the biggest area that Trump made up ground was in the industrial Mid-West, where his message of free trade resonated with disenfranchised voters. The turnout was incredible for both candidates. For all the talk about how much people hated both candidates, it did not stop them from staying home. There was a 5% increase in voters from 2012, so many people came out to vote.

But now the country wakes up to the reality that Donald J Trump is going to be the next President of the United States of America. Yes, the billionaire real estate mogul who flirted numerous times with a run has won the Presidency. The world is still reeling and while half the country celebrates, the other half is down trodden and shocked.

I have no crystal ball of what will happen in a Trump administration, but I would like to take a minute to make some "educated" guesses on what happens. So here is a summation of the top issues and how it might play out. Sorry if it's not as sensational as people expect.

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Supreme Court

This is a given, the Supreme Court will continue to be conservative for awhile longer. President Trump will have the benefit of nominating a Supreme Court Justice who follows the mold of Justice Scalia to replace his seat. With the Senate firmly in Republican control, there will probably be little fight outside of Democrats who now take up the mantle of obstructing the nomination (or maybe they will follow President Obama's urging to give the nominee an up or down vote).

What will it change? Not much. Conservative courts tend to not be activist courts. They do not interject themselves into society and usually allow for the rule of law to work itself out. I don't foresee Roe v. Wade being overturned. Trump supports the LGBT community, so I don't foresee Obergefell being overturned either. Similarly, Citizens United will also not be overturned.

The issue of gun control and the Second Amendment might become something the new Supreme Court will have to deal with. The Supreme Court has yet to really give clear guidance or any concrete rule to follow when it comes to gun control laws. Their current stance remains that the Second Amendment protects the right to bear arms for self-defense. Outside of that there is little guidance on ancillary issues regarding gun control (ammunition, assault rifles, carry and conceal).

One issue that will be decided will be the issue of trans-gender bathrooms. Where will a conservative court will land? It would seem likely to just guess they would uphold the law, but remember this conservative court also upheld Obamacare, so who knows?

Also, Trump may have another pick with some Justices reaching old age. Justice Ginsburg is getting older and may want to leave (given her outspoken dislike for Trump). So you may be looking at a 6-3 conservative Supreme Court for years to come.

Immigration

Ah yes, "build a wall". The rallying cry of Trump supporters. Is it realistic? Sure, after this election anything is realistic. When Trump made a visit to Mexico to meet with the Mexican President, they spoke briefly on how they agreed a physical barrier between the country's would benefit both of them. How will it be paid for? I don't expect Mexico to write a check, but in previous statements Trump has alluded to the growing trade deficit with Mexico. They may not write a check, but they may end up paying for it in other ways. Maybe a restructuring of NAFTA? There are numerous ways to "pay" for a wall, it doesn't have to be a check. Trump projects himself as a deal maker, so maybe a deal will be made. But either way it will be an issue and don't expect Trump to back down from his goal to build the wall.

On the same issue of immigration, Trump's stance on the refugee crisis has softened from "banning all Muslims" to "strict vetting process" of all people coming from Middle East nations. The truth is, as much as people kick and scream and shout "racist", the truth is these laws already exist that allow Trump to do this. Being the head of the Executive Branch, it's his job to execute the laws. He has the ability to simply execute those laws more strictly.

Will America close itself off? Unlikely. Trump will likely work to just enforce the immigration laws that are already on the books. But don't expect huge patrols of border patrol agents snatching up immigrants and deporting them.

Economy

The economy was probably the top issue of the election with people worried about jobs, and stagnant incomes. You saw it on both sides. Bernie Sanders pushed for a "fairer" economy where the top 1% paid their fair share of taxes. Trump seeks to get the economy going in two major ways.

First, Trump seeks to simplify and lower taxes. It's not revolutionary, but it has proven effective for past administrations. JFK implemented a similar plan in the 60's and there was incredible economic growth. Reagan implemented "trickle-down" economics. Even former President Clinton implemented a similar tax cut in the 90's which led to great economic growth. Trump's belief is that when people have more money in their pockets, the economy benefits. It's worked in the past, so why not give it another go?

In that similar tax plan, Trump wants to lower the corporate tax rate to 35%. The lowest it's been in decades. His hope is that in doing so, corporations will be more likely to "come home" and bring jobs with them. Definitely plausible, and remains to be seen if this works out.

Second, Trump has been vehemently against "free trade". He believes in renegotiating all trade deals in order to work out fairer trade deals. NAFTA has been a drag on American manufacturing. Before NAFTA was signed, 40% of American consumption was fueled by credit and welfare. After NAFTA, 70% was by credit and welfare. This is an unsustainable model because incomes and jobs have dried up and sooner or later both credit and welfare will dry up. For that reason alone, free trade has to be addressed.

Divided Country

Probably the biggest issue President Trump will face is a divided country. It's no secret this election brought out some vitriol. We may have been divided for many years. President Obama did his best to unite the country, but deep divisions continue to exist. Anyone who checked their Facebook feed this morning got a glimpse of the divisevness this country faces.

In his victory speech, Trump stated that the most important issue for him is to be a President to all Americans and that's time to come together and work together for the better of the country. His opponents labeled him as a hate mongering, racist, xenophobe. But watching his rallies in the past months, his message was anything but. His crowds were filled with people of all walks of life. It's hard to call someone all those names when he garnered record support from minorities for a Republican candidate.

Trump has stated in the past he believes the Civil Rights Act should be amended to include members of the LGBT community. Helping to get this passed while he has both houses of Congress would be a good way to show he is not your typical Republican.

It's also important he does his best to make good on all his trips to inner cities. It's not enough to go to the inner cities and chastise the Democrats for failing to do anything, and then do the same thing. He will have to make it a priority to work with inner cities to resolve the many issues that face those living there.

Completing these two things will help in beginning to mend fences in America. If he truly wants to be a President for all people, he will have to prove it with actions and not just words.

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There is a lot to be done, and it is definitely not going to be easy. But I can assure you a couple things. The world is not ending. America is not over. Immigrants will not be rounded up in vans and busses and shipped out of the country. We are not going to nuclear war with anyone. For all the calamity people are predicting on social media, none of it will come true.

The people spoke, and they decided to shake up the system. It's an important lesson in history. For as strong and well-funded the Clinton campaign was, the American people still decided the outcome. The power to vote still remains the most important and powerful Constitutional right.

The book was not closed on America last night, instead we merely turned the page to a new chapter. What happens in that chapter remains to be seen, but the Republic is strong, and my hope is that we continue to remain strong.